Atlanta Falcons

Jack Strand Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jack Strand has gone over 0.5 FS in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Minnesota St Moorhead
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 1.0 FS · our line

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OutJack Strand isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Cooper Rush was benched after going 10-for-17 passing with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Strand came on in relief and was just as ineffective. The 22-year-old is an undrafted rookie who played his college football at tiny Minnesota State-Moorhead, so it's no surprise he wasn't ready for the NFL in his first regular-season game action. With Michael Penix (knee) potentially back for Thursday night's game at Green Bay, Strand will be a cut candidate. Strand would make more sense on the practice squad where he can learn in a no-stress environment.

Verdict

vs 0.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

1.0 FS

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — FS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ GB

Sep 25, 2026

16thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

GB allows 16.4 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Jack Strand has gone over 0.5 FS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most FS of 32 teams (16.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.