Loading…
Buffalo BillsJackson Hawes
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 253 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia Tech
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 14.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJackson Hawes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hawes started Thursday and played in 37 of the team's 74 offensive snaps, adding seven on special teams. However, the 25-year-old went without a catch (or target) for a second consecutive game. Hawes finished the 2025 campaign with 16 catches for 187 yards and three touchdowns in 17 regular-season games. Although there's a chance he will find the end zone this season, he'll likely have an uphill battle doing much more than blocking while Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are healthy ahead of him.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
12.1 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 9.6 · L10 14.8 · med 15.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.0 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 14.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LAC allows 43.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jackson Hawes has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (43.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.