Seattle Seahawks

Jadarian Price Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jadarian Price has gone over 1.5 TGT in 2 of his last 2 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.0 TGT · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Jadarian Price's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Shoulder Not Specified

When Price was accompanied by team trainers to the locker room with his pads off during the fourth quarter Sunday, he was considered questionable to return due to a chest issue. Macdonald told Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle afterward that X-rays were returned negative, and additional comments from the head coach one day later indicate the rookie first-round pick may not miss any time. Ultimately, how Price fares in practice Wednesday through Friday will determine his availability for next Sunday's game at Washington. George Holani and Emanuel Wilson are the next players up in the Seahawks backfield.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

Hot overFireFactor 54/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

2.0 TGT(×1.02 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 102 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 202 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Season2 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
1.5Current	100%	2/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ WSH

Sep 27, 2026

13thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

WSH allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 2 games, Jadarian Price has gone over 1.5 TGT 2 of 2 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.