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Detroit LionsJahmyr Gibbs Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over 3.5 REC in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.7 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJahmyr Gibbs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Gibbs managed a 16-yard run among his 16 carries, yet he generally found running room at a premium over the course of the high-scoring loss. Game script also limited the star running back's opportunities on the ground somewhat, but Gibbs did make up for it to an extent with his work as a receiver. The fourth-year pro tied for second in receptions and also was the runner-up in receiving yards for the Lions on the night, and he added his first receiving touchdown of the season when he brought in an 11-yard laser from Jared Goff with just over five minutes remaining in the first half. Gibbs should have a chance at reverting to a larger workload on the ground in a Week 3 home matchup against the Jets on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
5.9 REC(×1.19 context)
L5 5.2 · L10 5.6 · med 5.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.4 · ceil 6.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 18/18 | ||
| 94% | 17/18 | ||
| 78% | 14/18 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 | ||
| 22% | 4/18 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs
NYJ allows 1.2 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over 3.5 REC 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 29th-most REC of 32 teams (1.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 4.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 44.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.4%
Best Over
FanDuel+112
-5.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-140
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+25.6%
Our model puts the over at 70.2% vs the market's no-vig 44.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Jahmyr Gibbs research
Jahmyr Gibbs — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Gibbs Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Gibbs Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Gibbs Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Gibbs Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.