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Dallas CowboysJake Ferguson Receptions
Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jake Ferguson has gone over 3.5 REC in 1 of his last 5 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.0 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Jake Ferguson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Ankle Sprain
Ferguson returned to practice Friday as a limited participant, after making an early exit Week 8 and missing practice earlier this week. Dallas has downplayed the severity of Ferguson's injury, but he looks no better than 50/50 ahead of a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday at Indianapolis. Brevyn Spann-Ford filled in after Ferguson's first-quarter exit last week, playing 88 percent of snaps on offense and catching four of five targets for 31 yards.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsCold underFireFactor 54/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency65supports it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
2.9 REC(×1.02 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 2.8 · ceil 3.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 105 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 205 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Season5 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 3.5Current | 20% | 1/5 | |
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/4Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
25thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
IND allows 2.2 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Jake Ferguson has gone over 3.5 REC 1 of 5 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 25th-most REC of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.4%
Best Over
BetMGM+100
+1.2% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-105
-3.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-20.0%
Our model puts the over at 30.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.
More Jake Ferguson research
Jake Ferguson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Ferguson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Ferguson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Ferguson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.