Jacksonville Jaguars

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jakobi Meyers has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: NC State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutJakobi Meyers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

In 16 regular-season games (seven with Las Vegas and nine with Jacksonville) in 2025, Meyers recorded a 75-835-3 receiving line, and the Jaguars showed their commitment to him by inking the veteran wideout to a three-year, $60 million deal in December. In his first full campaign with Jacksonville, Meyers will have plenty of competition for targets, but the 29-year-old should see enough weekly volume to make a fantasy mark, especially in PPR formats.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 84% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line84supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.98 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2016 games

19%over

3 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–43%

Season16 games

19%over

3 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–43%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	19%	3/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home11%1/9Medium

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days20%3/15Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Parker Washington out

Without (4g)

0.3 REC TD

25% over 0.5

With (12g)

0.2 REC TD

17% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs BUF

Jan 11, 2026

13thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

BUF allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 54 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jakobi Meyers has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 19% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 13th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 19%.