Jacksonville Jaguars

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jakobi Meyers has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 6 decided games (17%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: NC State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutJakobi Meyers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Meyers set the pace for the Jaguars in both receptions and receiving yards on the night, bouncing back nicely from a quiet 2-24-0 line just four days earlier in a blowout win over the Colts. The veteran wideout has multiple catches in all but one game, although Meyers hasn't topped 83 receiving yards in any contest to date in 2026. Meyers remains a key target for Trevor Lawrence, but he could see at least a slight boost in his outlook heading into a Week 10 road matchup against the Titans on Sunday, Nov. 15, if Brian Thomas is moved at the trade deadline.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 89% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line89supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.00 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 106 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Last 206 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Season6 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/5Medium

Next matchup — @ TEN

Nov 15, 2026

15thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

TEN allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 26 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Jakobi Meyers has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 6 decided times (17%) — versus 17% across the full season. TEN has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 17%.