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Philadelphia EaglesJalen Hurts
#1 · QB · 6' 1" · 223 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 201.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Hurts isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
A.J. Brown, who led the Eagles with 121 targets in 2025, was traded to the Patriots earlier this month, but prior to that previously speculated move, Philadelphia proactively added depth to a WR corps that is slated to led by returnee DeVonta Smith. The most notable moves in that regard were adding Makai Lemon in the first round of this year's draft, in addition to trading for Dontayvion Wicks and signing Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore in free agency. During the 2025 regular season, Hurts recorded 3,224 passing yards and a 25:6 TD:INT to go with 421 rushing yards and eight TDs on the ground (on 105 attempts) in 16 contests, numbers that kept him relevant from a fantasy perspective. Looking ahead, Hurts' upside in 2026 is largely tied to how well he adapts to working in new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion's system, as well as how things shake out in terms of the team's collective approach to replacing Brown.
Verdict
vs 184.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency45neutral
Projection
206.5 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 186.6 · L10 204.5 · med 184.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 135.0 · ceil 280.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 184.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 184.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Last matchup — vs SF
Jan 11, 2026
10thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
SF allows 231.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Hurts has gone over 184.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (231.7 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 66.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.