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Arizona CardinalsJames Conner
#6 · RB · 6' 1" · 233 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Sep 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Pittsburgh
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 31.7 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJames Conner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Foot Surgery
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
Though LaFleur said last week that Conner could "potentially" play this season, that won't happen in Week 9. The veteran running back continues to work his way back from a right foot injury and has not yet been cleared to practice. Arizona is dealing with multiple injuries in its backfield, including Jeremiyah Love (ankle) and Bam Knight (concussion), so Conner could provide a big boost once he's able to work his way back this week. Instead, the team will turn to Tyler Allgeier to lead its backfield, with Evan Hull serving as his primary backup if Knight is unable to suit up Sunday against Seattle.
Verdict
vs 33.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 20% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line20argues against it
Consistency62supports it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
26.0 RUSH YDS(×0.84 context)
L5 31.7 · L10 31.7 · med 34.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 26.8 · ceil 37.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 33.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 33.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — @ SEA
Nov 8, 2026
30thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
SEA allows 34.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, James Conner has gone over 33.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 30th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (34.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 7.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.