Minnesota Vikings

Jauan Jennings Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jauan Jennings has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TD · our line

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OutJauan Jennings isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jennings will head to Minnesota after spending the first six years of his NFL career with the 49ers, five of which were as a member of the team's active roster. The wide receiver most recently caught 55 of 90 targets for 643 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns over 15 regular-season games in 2025. He now will join a Vikings roster that has a pair of former first-round picks in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as anchors in the WR room, but Jennings will provide the team with a formidable trio at the position.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line45neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2015 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Season15 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	53%	8/15
	7%	1/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%8/14Low

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.J. McCarthy out+0.1 REC TD when he sits

Without (11g)

0.6 REC TD

55% over 0.5

With (4g)

0.5 REC TD

50% over 0.5

Aaron Jones Sr. out-0.2 REC TD when he sits

Without (11g)

0.5 REC TD

45% over 0.5

With (4g)

0.8 REC TD

75% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 18, 2026

22ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jauan Jennings has gone over 0.5 REC TD 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.