Houston Texans

Jayden Higgins Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jayden Higgins has gone over 3.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.2 REC · our line

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OutJayden Higgins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The No. 34 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft posted a 41-525-6 receiving line on 68 targets across 17 games as a rookie and appears positioned for a Year 2 leap. Koch reports that Higgins stands as the clear No. 2 receiver on Houston's depth chart ahead of training camp, a role that could benefit from the team's upgraded offensive line and the departure of Christian Kirk to San Francisco. Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel remain in the mix behind Collins and Higgins, while Tank Dell (knee) is expected to return at some point during the 2026 season.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency16argues against it

Projection

3.3 REC(×0.95 context)

L5 2.8 · L10 3.5 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 4.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2014 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Season14 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	93%	13/14
	86%	12/14
	64%	9/14
3.5Current	50%	7/14
	21%	3/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days54%7/13Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

C.J. Stroud out+1.4 REC when he sits

Without (3g)

4.3 REC

100% over 3.5

With (11g)

2.9 REC

36% over 3.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 18, 2026

27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jayden Higgins has gone over 3.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.