Green Bay Packers

Jayden Reed Targets

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jayden Reed has gone over 4.5 TGT in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.8 TGT · our line

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OutJayden Reed isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Reed played through a fractured foot at the beginning of last season and then missed 10 games after breaking his collarbone in Week 2. He returned for the stretch run and scored a touchdown on a season-high seven targets during the playoff loss at Chicago. With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks out of the picture, each of Reed, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden has a solid case for career-high volume this year. There is still some doubt about Reed's playing time in two-wide packages, as he's largely been confined to 11 personnel through the first three years of his NFL career.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency54neutral

Projection

5.0 TGT(×0.99 context)

L5 4.8 · L10 4.8 · med 4.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	6/6
	100%	6/6
	83%	5/6
4.5Current	50%	3/6
	33%	2/6
	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — @ CHI

Jan 11, 2026

18thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

CHI allows 5.4 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Jayden Reed has gone over 4.5 TGT 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.