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Dallas CowboysJaydon Blue
#23 · RB · 5' 9" · 198 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 40.7 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaydon Blue isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Blue, who the Cowboys took in the fifth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, logged just 38 carries for 129 yards and a TD and one catch for five yards in five regular-season games as a rookie. While Malik Davis emerged as Javonte Williams' primary backup last year, Blue will have a chance to compete for that role this summer with Davis, as well as Phil Mafah. Williams remains the team's unquestioned lead back, but if Blue can parlay the speed and explosiveness Schottenheimer has noted he possesses into a larger complementary role, the Texas product could carry fantasy sleeper appeal in 2026.
Verdict
vs 29.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 30% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line30argues against it
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
42.2 RUSH YDS
L5 40.7 · L10 40.7 · med 29.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 29.0 · ceil 50.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 29.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 29.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — @ NYG
Jan 4, 2026
1stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NYG allows 62.4 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, Jaydon Blue has gone over 29.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (62.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 16.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.