Loading…
Denver BroncosJaylen Waddle
#17 · WR · 5' 10" · 185 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 60.7 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylen Waddle isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
"He's someone who picks things up real quick," Payton said last month of Waddle, who put up a 64/910/6 receiving line (on 100 targets) in 16 regular-season games in 2025. "You can just feel his instincts, his quickness and his ability to not only run fast but stop fast. So, he's doing well." Looking ahead, Waddle and Courtland Sutton are slated to lead a Denver WR corps that also includes Pat Bryant, Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin. Assuming he builds solid chemistry with QB Bo Nix (ankle), who is excited about the explosiveness Waddle brings to the team's offense, the 2021 first-rounder -- who topped 1,000 receiving yards during his first three seasons (2021-2023) with Miami -- is a candidate to see an uptick in production in 2026, and in turn provide weekly fantasy utility in his new locale.
Verdict
vs 53.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
57.2 REC YDS
L5 48.0 · L10 61.5 · med 62.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.2 · ceil 86.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 53.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 53.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bo Nix out-12.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
53.2 REC YDS
33% over 53.5
With (9g)
65.7 REC YDS
56% over 53.5
J.K. Dobbins out-14.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
54.8 REC YDS
33% over 53.5
With (6g)
69.5 REC YDS
67% over 53.5
Last matchup — vs CIN
Dec 21, 2025
23rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CIN allows 39.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 47 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaylen Waddle has gone over 53.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (39.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.