Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Wright Carries

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylen Wright has gone over 8.5 CAR in 4 of his last 6 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 10.8 CAR · our line

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OutJaylen Wright isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

It sounds like Wright is off to a good start under the new coaching staff, competing with Ollie Gordon, Donovan Edwards and others for backup backfield roles behind De'Von Achane. One of the bunch could see a decent number of carries, as the Dolphins presumably won't want the sub-200-pound Achane butting heads between the tackles repeatedly. Wright was billed as a big-play threat rather than a power runner when the Dolphins took him in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but he does have decent size (5-foot-10, 208 pounds) to go with his 4.38 speed (2024 Combine).

Verdict

vs 8.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line63supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

11.1 CAR(×1.03 context)

L5 11.2 · L10 10.8 · med 9.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 5.0 · ceil 13.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 106 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Last 206 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Season6 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	4/6
	67%	4/6
	67%	4/6
8.5Current	67%	4/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6

Last 6 games — CAR per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away100%3/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%3/5Low

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 4, 2026

20thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

NE allows 10.9 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Jaylen Wright has gone over 8.5 CAR 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most CAR of 32 teams (10.9 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.