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Houston TexansJaylin Noel
#14 · WR · 5' 11" · 201 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 33.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylin Noel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Finger Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Aug 13, 2026
Texans general manager Nick Caserio remarked that Noel could be back in a few weeks, though Wilson has reported that the second-year wideout's injury is short-term. It will be encouraging if Wilson is able to get back on the practice field at training camp sooner rather than later, given the opportunity he faces to secure the No. 3 receiver role behind Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins. As long as Noel remains sidelined, Xavier Hutchinson, Lewis Bond and Justin Watson will benefit from increased reps. The same could be true of Tank Dell (knee), who will begin camp limited to side work but will ramp up to full-team reps.
Verdict
vs 24.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
32.2 REC YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 33.6 · L10 33.1 · med 24.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 9.0 · ceil 59.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 24.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ LAC
Dec 27, 2025
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAC allows 38.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 57 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Jaylin Noel has gone over 24.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (38.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.