Arizona Cardinals

Jeremiyah Love Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jeremiyah Love has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: Rookie

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.5 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutJeremiyah Love isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Love and the rest of the Cardinals' offense mustered only a combined 151 total yards Sunday. The running back was able to reel in multiple catches for the second straight week to open the regular season, and he saw 12 touches to Tyler Allgeier's seven in the contest. Arizona will have another tough test with a road matchup against the 49ers (2-0) in Week 3, but Love figures to continue to separate from the pack as the Cardinals' clear No. 1 option at running back moving forward.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)96supports it

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 RUSH TD(×0.92 context)

L5 0.5 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ SF

Sep 27, 2026

16thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

SF allows 0.3 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 2 games, Jeremiyah Love has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.