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New York JetsJeremy Ruckert
#89 · TE · 6' 5" · 250 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 14.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJeremy Ruckert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ruckert played 43 percent of the offensive snaps for the Jets, showing the team's inclination towards 13-personnel. Despite slotting in as the No. 3 tight end, Ruckert seems slated to be regularly involved as a blocker and occasional tertiary target.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency13argues against it
Projection
9.7 REC YDS(×0.84 context)
L5 10.6 · L10 14.7 · med 14.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.2 · ceil 20.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 14.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 27, 2026
5thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
DET allows 46.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jeremy Ruckert has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 5th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (46.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.