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Baltimore RavensJoe Fagnano
#12 · QB · 6' 3" · 226 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UConn
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 75.5 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJoe Fagnano isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Fagnano drew the start with both Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) on injured reserve, and the undrafted rookie signal-caller unsurprisingly had a difficult night after also struggling in emergency duty against the Bills just four days earlier. Fagnano had been dealing with an ankle injury stemming from his aforementioned NFL debut and had little practice time on a short week, so offensive coordinator Declan Doyle kept the game plan simple and focused on the short areas of the field, resulting in Fagnano averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt. Both of Fagnano's second-half picks also led to Jacksonville field goals, making it a forgettable night overall. With the Ravens reportedly putting the finishing touches on a trade with the Cardinals for veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett, Fagnano is likely to move into a reserve role as soon as a Week 10 road matchup against the Titans on Sunday, Nov. 15.
Verdict
vs 162.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency66supports it
Projection
74.8 PASS YDS
L5 75.5 · L10 75.5 · med 75.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 66.2 · ceil 84.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 52 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Last 102 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Last 202 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Season2 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Situational splits
Over 162.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — vs JAX
Nov 6, 2026
8thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
JAX allows 256.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Joe Fagnano has gone over 162.5 PASS YDS 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 8th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (256.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 15.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 162.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-50.0%
Our model puts the over at 0.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (162.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.