Philadelphia Eagles

Joe Milton Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Nov 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Joe Milton has gone over 53.5 RUSH YDS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 53.5 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutJoe Milton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The big-armed Milton wasn't effective as a passer while working with a depleted receiving corps that was missing DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), but Milton showcased strong mobility and led the Eagles in rushing yards while RBs Saquon Barkley and Elijah Mitchell combined for just 28 rushing yards on 16 carries. The 2024 sixth-round pick of the Patriots played nearly the full game in the 2024 regular-season finale against the Bills and got into four games with Dallas during the 2025 campaign, but this was Milton's first regular-season NFL start. Philadelphia's Week 10 bye will provide an opportunity to evaluate a QB room consisting of Milton, the recently benched Tanner McKee and rookie fifth-round pick Cole Payton. Whichever QB gets the starting nod in Week 11 against the Steelers would benefit from the potential return of Smith or Wicks after the bye.

Verdict

vs 53.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency67supports it

Projection

54.0 RUSH YDS

L5 53.5 · L10 53.5 · med 53.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 47.2 · ceil 59.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
53.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2

Last 2 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 53.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 53.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — vs NYG

Nov 8, 2026

3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

NYG allows 24.6 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Joe Milton has gone over 53.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (24.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 10.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.