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Washington CommandersJohn Bates
#87 · TE · 6' 6" · 256 lb · 6 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 6 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boise State
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 11.0 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJohn Bates isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Bates has primarily been utilized as a run blocker during his NFL career, though he did come up with two catches (on three targets) for 13 yards during the Commanders' 24-22 loss to the Eagles in Week 1. Bates should see an uptick in offensive snaps and targets from Jayden Daniels due to Okonkwo's absence, with Ben Sinnott and Colson Yankoff also in the mix for elevated roles.
Verdict
vs 13.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
10.8 REC YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 12.2 · L10 11.0 · med 11.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 13.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 106 games
17%over
1 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%Last 206 games
17%over
1 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%Season6 games
17%over
1 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%Situational splits
Over 13.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days20%1/5Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
14thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
SEA allows 23.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, John Bates has gone over 13.5 REC YDS 1 of 6 decided times (17%) — versus 17% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 14th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (23.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 13.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-24.9%
Our model puts the over at 25.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (13.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 17%.