Denver Broncos

Jonah Coleman Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jonah Coleman has gone over 2.5 TGT in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.3 TGT · our line

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OutJonah Coleman isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With RJ Harvey (knee) on the shelf, Coleman saw a season-high 15 touches compared to J.K. Dobbins' seven, and the rookie was instrumental in the Broncos' fourth-quarter comeback. After a Harrison Butker missed field goal gave Denver great field position, Coleman was a one-man show on a two-play drive, taking a short pass from Bo Nix and turning it into a 51-yard gain before punching in a five-yard TD on the other side of the two-minute warning. Dobbins will still mix in on early downs, but Coleman may have just seized control of the backfield for the Broncos. He'll look to solidify his spot in Week 9 against a Panthers defense that's among the worst in the league against the run.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency38argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

3.6 TGT(×1.06 context)

L5 3.3 · L10 3.3 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.4 · ceil 4.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 53 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 103 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 203 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Season3 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	3/3
	100%	3/3
2.5Current	67%	2/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Next matchup — @ CAR

Nov 8, 2026

10thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CAR allows 2.8 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 3 games, Jonah Coleman has gone over 2.5 TGT 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.