Carolina Panthers

Jonathon Brooks Carries

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jonathon Brooks has gone over 4.5 CAR in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 4.5 CAR · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJonathon Brooks isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
Est. return:: Nov 8, 2026

The Panthers haven't yet opened Brooks' 21-day practice window, but that might happen soon after head coach Dave Canales said Monday that the young running back would "potentially" be designated for return from injured reserve this week. Brooks hasn't played since Week 2 after undergoing core-muscle surgery, so he'll likely need to turn in multiple full practices before the Panthers are comfortable clearing him for game action. Once he's activated from IR, Brooks will likely handle a supporting role out of the backfield behind starter Chubba Hubbard.

Verdict

vs 4.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 34% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line34argues against it

Consistency81supports it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

3.8 CAR(×0.85 context)

L5 4.5 · L10 4.5 · med 4.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.2 · ceil 4.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
4.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — CAR per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs DEN

Nov 8, 2026

29thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

DEN allows 9.6 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Jonathon Brooks has gone over 4.5 CAR 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 29th-most CAR of 32 teams (9.6 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.