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Green Bay PackersJordan Love Completions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jordan Love has gone over 19.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 20.2 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJordan Love isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Packers struggled to move the ball for most of the afternoon but benefited from some key penalties as they came back from a 17-7 fourth-quarter deficit to win a sloppily played game in rainy conditions. Love got the scoring started with a six-yard touchdown pass to MarShawn Lloyd just under 10 minutes before halftime, but Green Bay's next points didn't come until Love's three-yard touchdown pass to Christian Watson with 7:58 left in the fourth quarter. Green Bay did just enough to avoid starting 0-2 heading into Thursday's Week 3 home game against the Falcons, but Love has an uninspiring 52 percent completion percentage after completing 66.3 percent of his passes during the 2025 regular season.
Verdict
vs 19.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency60neutral
Projection
21.7 CMP(×1.10 context)
L5 20.4 · L10 19.3 · med 19.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.2 · ceil 24.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 13/17 | ||
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 19.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 29% | 5/17 | ||
| 29% | 5/17 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
6thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
ATL allows 23.5 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jordan Love has gone over 19.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 41% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 6th-most CMP of 32 teams (23.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.
More Jordan Love research
Jordan Love — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Love Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Love Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Love Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.