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Minnesota VikingsJordan Mason
#27 · RB · 5' 11" · 230 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia Tech
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 55.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJordan Mason isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Though the Vikings have yet to declare a starting QB between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, there's continuity elsewhere in the offense, with the team's top two RBs, WRs and TEs from last year back for another campaign. Mason is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he recorded 758 yards and six TDs on 159 carries to go along with 14 catches for 51 yards in 16 contests, while Jones carried the ball 132 times for 548 yards and two touchdowns, adding 28 catches (on 41 targets) for 199 yards and a score in 12 games. With Mason and Jones both still around, another RB timeshare -- one that favors Jones in PPR formats -- is in the making for 2026, while Claiborne is a candidate to mix in on passing downs.
Verdict
vs 51.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
51.4 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 52.8 · L10 51.1 · med 49.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 38.4 · ceil 63.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 51.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 51.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.J. McCarthy out+16.3 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
65.8 RUSH YDS
80% over 51.5
With (8g)
49.5 RUSH YDS
38% over 51.5
Aaron Jones Sr. out+31.6 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
75.2 RUSH YDS
100% over 51.5
With (8g)
43.6 RUSH YDS
25% over 51.5
Last matchup — vs GB
Jan 4, 2026
14thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
GB allows 49.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jordan Mason has gone over 51.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 54% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (49.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.