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Indianapolis ColtsJosh Downs
#2 · WR · 5' 9" · 171 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 41.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Downs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Downs was able to reel in four or more passes for the fourth time this season and second time in the last three weeks. Downs was on the receiving end of the team's only score on the day, grabbing a six-yard touchdown pass from Daniel Jones in the third quarter for the wideout's first score of the year. Downs has now caught 30 of 51 targets for 330 yards and a touchdown over eight contests to open the 2026 campaign, and after he requested a trade this week, he may be wearing a new uniform the next time he appears in a game.
Verdict
vs 38.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
33.1 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 28.8 · L10 41.3 · med 38.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 20.0 · ceil 62.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 38.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DAL allows 47.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Josh Downs has gone over 38.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 21.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 42.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-8.1%
Our model puts the over at 41.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (42 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.