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Cincinnati BengalsJosh Johnson
#14 · QB · 6' 3" · 219 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- San Diego
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 164.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Joe Burrow (back) listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans, Johnson has a shot to be active. The quarterback will either be the backup to Joe Flacco if Burrow cannot suit up, or he will be inactive if Burrow is good to go.
Verdict
vs 164.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency66supports it
Projection
158.3 PASS YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 164.5 · L10 164.5 · med 164.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 144.4 · ceil 184.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 164.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 164.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ HOU
Sep 20, 2026
3rdof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 334.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Josh Johnson has gone over 164.5 PASS YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 3rd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (334.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 33.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.