Minnesota Vikings

Josh Oliver Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Josh Oliver has gone over 1.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: San José State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.3 REC · our line

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OutJosh Oliver isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Oliver ended the 2025 season dealing with an ankle injury he suffered in the Vikings' Week 18 victory over the Packers. The tight end has been on the field without restrictions during the early days of training camp and appears set to resume his role as the No. 2 option at tight end behind T.J. Hockenson.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency21argues against it

Projection

1.6 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

33%over

4 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–61%

Season12 games

33%over

4 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–61%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	92%	11/12
1.5Current	33%	4/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%4/11Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.J. McCarthy out-0.4 REC when he sits

Without (5g)

1.0 REC

20% over 1.5

With (7g)

1.4 REC

43% over 1.5

Aaron Jones Sr. out

Without (5g)

1.2 REC

40% over 1.5

With (7g)

1.3 REC

29% over 1.5

Last matchup — vs GB

Jan 4, 2026

15thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

GB allows 2.7 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Josh Oliver has gone over 1.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 33% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 15th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.