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Buffalo BillsJoshua Palmer
#5 · WR · 6' 1" · 210 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 29.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJoshua Palmer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Palmer was plagued by the injury for a good chunk of the 2025 season in and out of the lineup and ended up missing both of the team's playoff games, but he's feeling much better as prep for the new campaign gets underway. After posting a disappointing 22-303-0 line in his first season with the Bills, Palmer should be able to play more and do more in his next go-around. However, with DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and James Cook all ahead of him in the pecking order, Palmer's upside is probably capped unless the Bills get struck with a number of injuries to their passing game.
Verdict
vs 23.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
19.0 REC YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 13.4 · L10 29.6 · med 23.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 15.2 · ceil 49.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Last matchup — vs NYJ
Jan 4, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NYJ allows 41.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 55 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Joshua Palmer has gone over 23.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (41.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.