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Tennessee TitansJulius Chestnut
#36 · RB · 5' 11" · 228 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Sacred Heart
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 5.7 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
4.1 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 5.7 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.2 · ceil 4.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 2.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Last matchup — vs KC
Dec 21, 2025
20thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
KC allows 47.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 28 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Julius Chestnut has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (47.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.