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Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert
#10 · QB · 6' 6" · 236 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 228.6 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJustin Herbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Herbert said for each of the next few weeks he expects to dedicate one day to footwork and throwing-motion drills, with the goal of speeding up his release. Under McDaniel's new offensive scheme, Herbert said an early emphasis has been "just getting the ball out as quick as possible" rather than relying on his arm strength, in order to allow his pass-catchers "maximum ability to turn upfield and have time before a defender gets to them" and accumulate yards after the catch. That shift will play to the strengths of the Chargers' athletic skill-position group, led by playmakers like RB Omarion Hampton, WRs Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, and TEs Oronde Gadsden and David Njoku, and help reduce some of the attrition Herbert faced as the most pressured quarterback in the NFL last season. Offensive tackles Rashawn Slater (kneecap) and Joe Alt (ankle) are both expected to be cleared for training camp as well, so there are multiple reasons to be optimistic that Los Angeles' offense will take a productive step forward in 2026, with Herbert being a focal beneficiary of McDaniel's creative playcalling.
Verdict
vs 246.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency43neutral
Projection
195.7 PASS YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 208.8 · L10 197.3 · med 215.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 160.4 · ceil 292.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2017 games
35%over
6 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%Season17 games
35%over
6 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 246.5Current | 35% | 6/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 |
Situational splits
Over 246.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days31%5/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Omarion Hampton out+3.1 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
230.4 PASS YDS
43% over 246.5
With (10g)
227.3 PASS YDS
30% over 246.5
Quentin Johnston out+6.2 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
233.7 PASS YDS
33% over 246.5
With (14g)
227.5 PASS YDS
36% over 246.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 12, 2026
28thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 188.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Herbert has gone over 246.5 PASS YDS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 35% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (188.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 77.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.