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Minnesota VikingsJustin Jefferson
#18 · WR · 6' 1" · 195 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 64.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJustin Jefferson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Former Cardinal Kyler Murray was brought in to compete with J.J. McCarthy, and according to coach Kevin O'Connell, it's possible that the team's looming QB competition could extend into the preseason, Kevin Seifert of ESPN reports. Murray, the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, is viewed as the favorite to win the job, and if that ends up being the outcome, he'd be Minnesota's fourth different Week 1 starter in the past four seasons. Subpar QB play hampered Jefferson's fantasy upside in 2025, but if Murray seizes the top job and engineers a bounce-back season of his own in the process, the four-time Pro Bowler stands to benefit.
Verdict
vs 67.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency14argues against it
Projection
55.9 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 48.4 · L10 50.9 · med 47.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.0 · ceil 85.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 67.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 67.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.J. McCarthy out+14.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
73.0 REC YDS
71% over 67.5
With (9g)
58.4 REC YDS
33% over 67.5
Aaron Jones Sr. out+52.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
100.8 REC YDS
100% over 67.5
With (11g)
48.5 REC YDS
27% over 67.5
Last matchup — vs GB
Jan 4, 2026
16thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
GB allows 41.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Jefferson has gone over 67.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (41.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.