San Francisco 49ers

Kaelon Black Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kaelon Black has gone over 0.5 TGT in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Indiana
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 0.5 TGT · our line

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OutKaelon Black isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Black suited up for his second NFL contest after being listed as questionable coming into the game. He actually had two more rushing yards than Christian McCaffrey, but McCaffrey scored two touchdowns on 10 carries and added four catches for 43 yards. Black is poised to continue splitting the rushing workload with CMC in Week 3 against the Cardinals, though McCaffrey remains the preferred option in valuable goal-line and passing situations.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line42neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 TGT(×1.08 context)

L5 0.5 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs ARI

Sep 27, 2026

32ndof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

ARI allows 0.8 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Kaelon Black has gone over 0.5 TGT 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most TGT of 32 teams (0.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.