Loading…
Houston TexansKayshon Boutte Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kayshon Boutte has gone over 4.5 TGT in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 4.6 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKayshon Boutte isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Both Boutte and Xavier Hutchinson were lined up for larger roles offensively after Nico Collins (hamstring) was ruled out prior to Sunday's game. Boutte and Hutchinson ended with the same number of catches and receiving yards, but it was tight end Dalton Schultz who led all Texans pass catchers with a 12-140-0 receiving line on 14 targets. Collins is expected to miss the Texans' Week 3 tilt against the Colts, so Boutte should have at least one more week serving in an elevated role, though he doesn't appear to be in line for the kind of production bump that Schultz had in Week 2.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency51neutral
Projection
5.4 TGT(×1.13 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 4.7 · med 5.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Season14 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 4.5Current | 57% | 8/14 | |
| 14% | 2/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
IND allows 4.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kayshon Boutte has gone over 4.5 TGT 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 57% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Kayshon Boutte research
Kayshon Boutte — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Boutte Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Boutte Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Boutte Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.