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Cleveland BrownsKC Concepcion
#1 · WR · 6' 0" · 190 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 43.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKC Concepcion isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Concepcion's six targets tied Harold Fannin for second on the team, finishing one behind Denzel Boston, who proved again to be the big-play threat for the Browns, finishing with a 5-95-1 receiving line. Concepcion is running the majority of his routes from the slot, but his average depth of target was a microscopic 1.8 yards Sunday. It's going to be difficult to produce big yards when catching the ball basically at the line of scrimmage. Through two games, Concepcion has 10 catches for 71 scoreless yards on 11 targets. He gets a boost in PPR formats as a WR4/5 headed into next Sunday's date with the Panthers.
Verdict
vs 42.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 0% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line5argues against it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
39.6 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 43.0 · L10 43.0 · med 43.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 43.0 · ceil 43.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 42.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 42.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
5thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CAR allows 66.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 1 games, KC Concepcion has gone over 42.5 REC YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (66.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.