Los Angeles Chargers

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

KeAndre Lambert-Smith has gone over 3.5 TGT in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Auburn
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.5 TGT · our line

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OutKeAndre Lambert-Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Lambert-Smith played in only 10 games during his rookie season last year, in part because he was tending to a lingering hamstring injury. The Chargers' only big move at wide receiver during the offseason was selecting Brenen Thompson in the fourth round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and Lambert-Smith is one of a few players working on returning punts during offseason workouts, so now that he's back to full strength, he should have a realistic chance of snagging a spot on the 53-man roster for this season.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency29argues against it

Projection

3.6 TGT

L5 3.5 · L10 3.5 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.6 · ceil 4.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	50%	1/2
3.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ DEN

Jan 4, 2026

5thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

DEN allows 6.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, KeAndre Lambert-Smith has gone over 3.5 TGT 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.0 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.