Los Angeles Chargers

Keaton Mitchell Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Keaton Mitchell has gone over 0.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: East Carolina
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.0 TGT · our line

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OutKeaton Mitchell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mitchell operated as a distant No. 2 option in the backfield, logging 17 snaps on offense while starter Omarion Hampton was on the field for 43 of the team's 68 offensive snaps. Mitchell was able to make the most of his opportunities, averaging 4.8 YPC while reeling in his first catch of the season. The running back also added 47 yards on two kickoff returns in the contest. Mitchell has shown enough to be worth a stash in deeper fantasy leagues, but he will continue to have a limited ceiling as long as Hampton is active.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line60supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.0 TGT(×1.06 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2012 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Season12 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	58%	7/12
	25%	3/12
	17%	2/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away80%4/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days55%6/11Low

Next matchup — @ BUF

Sep 27, 2026

4thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

BUF allows 4.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Keaton Mitchell has gone over 0.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.