Kansas City Chiefs

Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kenneth Walker III has gone over 11.5 FS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.9 FS · our line

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OutKenneth Walker III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

On the heels of being named the most valuable player of Super Bowl LX, Walker inked a lucrative three-year deal to lead Kansas City's backfield this coming season. Edholm notes that Walker earned a reputation as a run-first back during his four-year stint with Seattle, but the 2022 second-rounder -- who logged 31 catches in 17 regular-season games in 2025 -- has reportedly been spending time with QB Patrick Mahomes (who is bouncing back from a December ACL/LCL injury) this offseason in anticipation of a potentially expanded role as a pass catcher. "We've been working on getting connected in the passing game and everything, so that's good," Walker said. "I feel like I'll be used more in the pass game." Either way, as the clear-cut RB1 for his new team, Walker figures to be busy out of the gate this coming season while Mahomes works his way back to form. Competing for complementary work behind Walker will be a pair of newcomers in rookie Emmett Johnson and free agent addition Emari Demercado, as well as 2025 seventh-rounder Brashard Smith.

Verdict

vs 11.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency4argues against it

Projection

19.4 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 19.9 · L10 17.3 · med 17.7

Consistency

Variable

floor 7.3 · ceil 19.3

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2019 games

53%over

10 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%

Season19 games

53%over

10 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	63%	12/19
	63%	12/19
	53%	10/19
11.5Current	53%	10/19
	47%	9/19
	42%	8/19
	42%	8/19

Last 19 games — FS per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away60%6/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%10/18Medium

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Justin Fields out+6.2 FS when he sits

Without (14g)

15.5 FS

64% over 11.5

With (5g)

9.3 FS

20% over 11.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Feb 8, 2026

27thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

NE allows 9.7 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kenneth Walker III has gone over 11.5 FS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most FS of 32 teams (9.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.