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Tampa Bay BuccaneersKenny Gainwell
#14 · RB · 5' 9" · 200 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Memphis
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 35.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKenny Gainwell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Irving is likely to get the majority of rushing opportunities in the regular season, and the Buccaneers also have Sean Tucker, who was used prominently in the red zone in 2025. Gainwell's niche is expected to be passing situations, so it's good to see him building early rapport with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Gainwell led the Steelers with 73 catches in the 2025 regular season, while Tampa Bay's running backs combined for 78 receptions last season.
Verdict
vs 22.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
33.5 RUSH YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 37.2 · L10 33.6 · med 22.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 18.2 · ceil 56.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 22.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%4/10Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Baker Mayfield out+1.6 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
36.0 RUSH YDS
43% over 22.5
With (8g)
34.4 RUSH YDS
50% over 22.5
Bucky Irving out-5.1 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
33.1 RUSH YDS
44% over 22.5
With (6g)
38.2 RUSH YDS
50% over 22.5
Last matchup — vs HOU
Jan 13, 2026
26thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
HOU allows 44.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kenny Gainwell has gone over 22.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 29.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.