Miami Dolphins

Kevin Coleman Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kevin Coleman Jr. has gone over 7.5 FS in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Missouri
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.1 FS · our line

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OutKevin Coleman Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Coleman led the team in receiving yards while reeling in multiple passes for the second time this season. The wide receiver's biggest moment of the game came in the fourth quarter when he connected with quarterback Malik Willis for a 35-yard score with 2:04 remaining in regulation. Coleman hasn't been a consistent part of the team's offensive approach this season, catching eight of 21 targets for 82 yards and two scores over seven contests so far.

Verdict

vs 7.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

8.1 FS(×1.03 context)

L5 7.1 · L10 7.1 · med 6.7

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.3 · ceil 12.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	2/4
	50%	2/4
	50%	2/4
7.5Current	50%	2/4
	50%	2/4
	50%	2/4
	50%	2/4

Last 4 games — FS per game vs. line 7.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 7.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Next matchup — vs DET

Nov 8, 2026

3rdof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

DET allows 11.7 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 4 games, Kevin Coleman Jr. has gone over 7.5 FS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most FS of 32 teams (11.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.