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New York JetsKhalil Herbert
#31 · RB · 1 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 42.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKhalil Herbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Herbert will provide San Francisco with much-needed depth at running back, as Jordan James (ribs), Isaac Guerendo (pectoral) and Kaelon Black (undisclosed) are all currently dealing with injuries. Herbert spent last season with the Jets, rushing for 52 yards on 16 carries. The 28-year-old could also add value as a return specialist.
Verdict
vs 41.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
42.0 RUSH YDS
L5 42.0 · L10 42.0 · med 42.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 42.0 · ceil 42.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 41.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 41.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ BUF
Jan 4, 2026
7thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
BUF allows 53.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 37 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 1 games, Khalil Herbert has gone over 41.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (53.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.