Los Angeles Chargers

Kimani Vidal Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kimani Vidal has gone over 1.5 REC in 3 of his last 9 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Troy
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.6 REC · our line

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OutKimani Vidal isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Vidal was an afterthought in the Chargers' plans on offense, with Omarion Hampton (32 snaps) and Keaton Mitchell (17) collectively getting the bulk of the backfield work Week 1. Vidal also wasn't used as a returner, though that could change for Week 2 against the Raiders on Sept. 20 if Derius Davis (undisclosed) is ruled out for that contest.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.4 REC(×0.99 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Last 209 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Season9 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	89%	8/9
1.5Current	33%	3/9
	22%	2/9
	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%2/8Low

Next matchup — @ BUF

Sep 27, 2026

3rdof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

BUF allows 3.3 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 9 games, Kimani Vidal has gone over 1.5 REC 3 of 9 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC of 32 teams (3.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.