Loading…
Las Vegas RaidersKirk Cousins
#18 · QB · 6' 3" · 209 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan State
- Experience
- 16 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 205.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKirk Cousins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
"When we go out to practice tomorrow, Kirk is the starting quarterback," Kubiak said. "He's the guy, and he deserves it because he's played really good football. But I want Fernando Mendoza and Aidan O'Connell to push him." This has been the Raiders' plan all along after Cousins opened spring practices as the QB1. While Cousins may get the Week 1 nod against the Dolphins on Sept. 13, Mendoza is fully expected to make rookie-year starts. Cousins made eight starts for the Falcons last season and completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions across 10 total regular-season appearances.
Verdict
vs 188.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency43neutral
Projection
206.7 PASS YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 207.6 · L10 205.5 · med 188.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 166.4 · ceil 220.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 188.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 188.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/4Low
Away100%4/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ashton Jeanty out+29.6 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
224.0 PASS YDS
33% over 188.5
With (5g)
194.4 PASS YDS
60% over 188.5
Brock Bowers out+15.0 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
213.0 PASS YDS
25% over 188.5
With (4g)
198.0 PASS YDS
75% over 188.5
Last matchup — vs NO
Jan 4, 2026
26thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NO allows 195.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Kirk Cousins has gone over 188.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 26th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (195.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 69.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.