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Atlanta FalconsKyle Pitts Sr.
#8 · TE · 6' 6" · 250 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 62.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKyle Pitts Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Atlanta extended Pitts a franchise tender earlier this offseason, but both sides have agreed to terms on a multi-year deal that includes $36 million fully guaranteed. Per Schefter, Pitts' annual average salary makes him the third-highest paid tight end in the league behind George Kittle (Achilles) and Trey McBride. The Falcons also signed Drake London (undisclosed) to a massive four-year contract in early June, while Bijan Robinson remains a candidate for a new deal after the team exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Pitts produced an 88-928-5 line (118 targets) in 17 regular-season games last year and will look to build chemistry with quarterbacks Michael Penix (ACL) and Tua Tagovailoa this offseason.
Verdict
vs 58.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
78.5 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 90.6 · L10 67.5 · med 58.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 38.0 · ceil 74.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 58.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 |
Situational splits
Over 58.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Tua Tagovailoa out-4.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
61.3 REC YDS
33% over 58.5
With (5g)
65.6 REC YDS
80% over 58.5
Last matchup — vs NO
Jan 4, 2026
29thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NO allows 21.1 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 58.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 29th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.