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Minnesota VikingsKyler Murray
#1 · QB · 5' 10" · 207 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 200.8 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Kyler Murray's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hamstring Soreness
Per head coach Kevin O'Connell, Murray is considered week-to-week, paving the way for Carson Wentz to make his second start of the season when the Vikings face the Bills on MNF. Per Lewis, O'Connell said Thursday that a stint on injured reserve isn't under consideration for Murray, suggesting that the starting quarterback's potential absence isn't expected to linger beyond 1-to-3 weeks.
Verdict
vs 209.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsWarm overFireFactor 22/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency70supports it
Projection
200.0 PASS YDS
L5 200.8 · L10 200.8 · med 210.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 164.4 · ceil 232.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 209.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 209.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — vs BUF
Nov 10, 2026
3rdof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BUF allows 269.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Kyler Murray has gone over 209.5 PASS YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 3rd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (269.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 36.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.