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Los Angeles ChargersLadd McConkey
#15 · WR · 6' 0" · 185 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 51.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLadd McConkey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The wideout will avoid placement on the active/PUP list after he battled a strained left hamstring during spring practices. McConkey had a down season in 2025 due in large part to the presence of Keenan Allen, who siphoned away targets in the middle of the field, but the veteran wasn't re-signed. McConkey is expected to be a featured part of new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's scheme that is built on speed and quickness. It would be a pretty big disappointment if McConkey isn't able to improve on his 66-789-6 receiving line over 16 regular-season games from last season after he went for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie in 2024 without Allen in the picture.
Verdict
vs 58.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency4argues against it
Projection
38.8 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 27.8 · L10 55.7 · med 49.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 28.2 · ceil 76.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2015 games
33%over
5 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%Season15 games
33%over
5 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 58.5Current | 33% | 5/15 | |
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 |
Situational splits
Over 58.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away14%1/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%4/14Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Omarion Hampton out+29.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
67.1 REC YDS
57% over 58.5
With (8g)
37.5 REC YDS
13% over 58.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 12, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ladd McConkey has gone over 58.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 33% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 29.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.