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New England PatriotsLan Larison
#34 · RB · 5' 11" · 209 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UC Davis
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 3.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLan Larison isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The addition of Larison to the 53-man roster gives the Patriots more depth in the backfield, and he could see some offensive snaps against the Dolphins on Sunday due to the absence of TreVeyon Henderson (illness). Larison figures to operate as the RB3 behind Rhamondre Stevenson and Corey Kiner.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
3.5 RUSH YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.2 · ceil 4.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 2.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
6thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
GB allows 56.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Lan Larison has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (56.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.