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Washington CommandersLuke McCaffrey
#11 · WR · 6' 2" · 195 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Rice
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 30.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLuke McCaffrey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McCaffrey's second NFL season was cut short in Week 9 of last year when he suffered a broken collarbone. After the Commanders let Deebo Samuel walk in free agency and selected Antonio Williams in the third round of the 2026 Draft, McCaffrey will be jockeying for positioning in Washington's wideout room behind clear WR1 Terry McLaurin. Along with McCaffrey and Williams, the Commanders also have Treylon Burks, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane and Van Jefferson as candidates for playing time.
Verdict
vs 24.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
27.7 REC YDS
L5 30.2 · L10 30.2 · med 24.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.8 · ceil 51.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 24.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Last matchup — @ KC
Oct 28, 2025
30thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 37.4 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Luke McCaffrey has gone over 24.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 20.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.