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San Francisco 49ersMac Jones
#10 · QB · 6' 3" · 220 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 268.9 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMac Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jones was able to throw at George Kittle's (Achilles) Tight End University last week. The backup quarterback started eight regular-season games for the 49ers last year and will remain a key depth piece for the organization going into the 2026 season.
Verdict
vs 281.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency59neutral
Projection
238.8 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 249.2 · L10 268.9 · med 281.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 209.8 · ceil 332.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 281.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 281.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — vs LAR
Nov 9, 2025
16thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAR allows 219.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Mac Jones has gone over 281.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (219.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 66.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.