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Cleveland BrownsMalachi Corley
#11 · WR · 5' 11" · 215 lb · 4 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 4 of these 4 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Western Kentucky
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 14.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMalachi Corley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
For the fourth time in eight appearances, Corley logged double-digit snaps on offense, but the third-year receiver has yet to draw a target this season. He'll continue to provide most of his value to the Browns as a kickoff returner.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency48neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
13.3 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 14.3 · L10 14.3 · med 14.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 10.2 · ceil 18.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NO allows 44.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Malachi Corley has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.