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New York GiantsMalik Nabers
#1 · WR · 6' 0" · 200 lb · 4 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 3 of these 4 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 80.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Malik Nabers's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Shoulder
Nabers exited late in the first quarter with a shoulder injury but was able to return before halftime. However, the Giants' air attack saw a major downturn once Jaxson Dart was forced from the contest after one series due to a knee injury, and Nabers appears to have suffered some of the collateral damage, in addition to whatever limitations his injury may have imposed. Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports Dart has been diagnosed with a sprained MCL, so it's conceivable the star wideout could face the Titans in a Week 3 home matchup with Jameis Winston once again leading New York's offense. Nabers himself is slated for testing, as he stated following Monday's loss that his shoulder "popped out" and had to be "popped...back in" during the game, and that he'll undergo X-rays to gain more information about the issue, per Dan Duggan of The Athletic.
Verdict
vs 70.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
77.0 REC YDS
L5 80.0 · L10 80.0 · med 70.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 46.6 · ceil 109.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 70.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 70.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — @ LAR
Sep 22, 2026
14thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 49.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Malik Nabers has gone over 70.5 REC YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (49.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 55.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 62.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.3% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+3.6%
Our model puts the over at 53.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (61.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.